Officials at the British Horseracing Authority are planning to make a decision on Monday evening as to whether racing can resume this week following the six-day shutdown due to an outbreak of equine flu.
With upwards of 700 tests processed by the Animal Health Trust on Sunday, all results have been negative prompting the BHA’s director of equine health and welfare David Sykes to say the “data is encouraging”.
However, with the AHT receiving several thousand samples from yards that could potentially have come into contact with the highly contagious virus, the analysis is still ongoing.
The BHA says “a pragmatic and evidence-led approach is being adopted” in order to make a decision if racing can swing back into action as hoped on Wednesday, with a prioritisation plan for testing in place.
That plan places emphasis on the “the proximity of horses to a positive test, or to a yard returning a positive test” with swabs continuing to be collected and tested, with some being “fast tracked”.
The BHA also says “a specific plan is being formed as to what the clearance process will be for individual yards to return to racing”.
Sykes said: “The data is encouraging and provides a further indication that the precautionary safety measures have helped to contain the spread of disease.
“However, the picture is still developing and it remains the case that we will make an evidence-based decision about the situation on Monday.
“It remains paramount that, for the sake of our horse population, we do not take any unnecessary risks. This is not a common cold, it is a highly contagious and potentially serious disease.
“The prioritisation exercise with regards to testing will help deliver a detailed picture of the spread of infection.
“Targeted testing, alongside the wide survey of data we have already gathered, will help provide a clear picture as to the scale of the spread of the disease.
“Any decision will include guidance and input from veterinary experts, including the industry’s veterinary committee.
“We are also working through the process that will be followed in order to give specific yards the all clear to resume racing.
“This will balance the clear need for yards to resume business as soon as possible with ensuring that we do not put horses at the risk of unnecessary harm. We are liaising with the National Trainers Federation and trainers on this process.”
The BHA confirmed all horses from the stable of Rebecca Menzies have now tested negative, although the yard remains under under close surveillance.
So far only six positive tests have been returned with all horses trained by Donald McCain, who originally raised the alarm on Wednesday evening, prompting an immediate halt to all British action.
A further 5,000 swabs were sent out to trainers on Saturday to help with testing, with the BHA and the Levy Board agreeing to pay a contribution to owners or trainers for the costs incurred where the BHA has required samples to be taken.
While all of Sunday’s tested samples returned clear, the AHT has confirmed that a non-thoroughbred, unvaccinated horse has had to be humanely euthanized after having contracted the virus.
Horse racing is facing its biggest health - and financial - crisis in 18 years, with the industry forced to close down in the UK due to an outbreak of equine flu.
More than 100 stables remain on lockdown, with six days of meetings cancelled, as the authorities work to contain an outbreak of the highly contagious illness.
The industry, which is worth an estimated £3.5bn to the UK economy a year, and the wider sector employ close to 100,000 people (with about a fifth directly employed). It has not experienced such a shutdown since the the foot-and-mouth crisis of 2001.
Racing is the second-highest attended sport in the UK after football, and supports a number of other ancillary sectors, from horse training and transportation, to catering, media coverage and gambling.
'Saving fixtures'
Media reports have put the overall cost to racing at between £150m to £200m, with concerns that the shutdown - including the Super Saturday meeting at Newbury - will cost betting firms £2m a day.
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The outbreak comes less than five weeks before the start of this year's Cheltenham Festival, which is followed by Aintree and the Grand National at the start of April.
And there are fears that unless the outbreak is contained these high-profile showpiece events could be under threat.
More than a dozen meetings between 7 - 13 February have been called off, and the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) says it will make a further announcement on Monday.
"I don't want to be complacent but I think the best way, in all our experience, to ensure we manage things, is to lock down at the moment," says the BHA chief executive Nick Rust.
"Then we can identify cases if any more emerge. It gives us the best chance to isolate, and make sure our [future] fixtures are saved."
Australian crisis
Millions of pounds are at stake if more races have to be called off. The BBC's racing correspondent Cornelius Lysaght says: "Any further shutdown - Cheltenham is again looming - would clearly have a considerable effect on the sport but [also] on all the ancillary industries that go with it."
When the UK was hit by foot-and-mouth in 2001, the estimated cost to the local Cheltenham economy by the cancellation of the festival was put at £30m. Meanwhile, bookmakers were estimated to have lost £100m because of the call-off.
And when Australia was hit by equine flu in August 2007, the industry was shut down for six months and the country was not declared free of the disease until 10 months later.
At the beginning of the outbreak, containment and eradication cost A$500,000 (£273,000) a day, while wider "associated income" losses hit A$4.6m (£2.5m) a day.
Sydney's spring racing carnival, which runs from August to October, was cancelled as the bottom fell out of the racing industry.
Nipped in bud?
Alan Switzer, from Deloitte's Sport Business unit, monitors the racing industry and produced a major report for the BHA six years ago.
"The initial financial cost will be to the racecourse, and then flow through the sector affecting things like betting and media revenues," he says.
He points out that a reduction in gambling income will also mean a reduction in the amount paid to the industry via the betting levy.
"Hopefully the shutdown will not run for weeks. What the BHA have done is right, with regards to both animal welfare and business," he says.
"If they can have nipped things in the bud, they will have experienced a few days of disruption but managed to secure the medium and long-term future of the industry.
"The industry could withstand a short-term blow of this nature, but if Cheltenham were to be cancelled it would be a serious blow, both for the racing industry and wider economy - transport, restaurants, entertainment, hotels - which benefit from the festival."
Costs and refunds
Harriet Collins from Newbury Racecourse - whose cancelled weekend event is seen as an important warm-up for Cheltenham - says the "very disappointing" outbreak is going to be costly to the industry.
"There are always going to be costs associated with losing any race days," she says.
She said the Berkshire course had the necessary contingencies in place, "including insurance" to cover racing cancellations.
In addition, race-going ticket holders have been quickly updated, and will now receive a full refund.
She said the goal for the BHA was to balance horse welfare to ensure "we don't lose [racing] for a longer period of time".
At Musselburgh, near Edinburgh, the course has lost its richest-ever jumps meeting, taking place this Sunday. If the venue's next meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, goes ahead there will be free admission for all racing fans.
'Financial damage'
After the cost of admission, catering is the highest area of expenditure for most race-goers.
Ivor Spreadbury runs the annual National Racecourse Catering Awards, having been involved with the sport for 30 years and employed in catering for half a century.
He says equine flu could cost the catering industry hundreds of thousands of pounds, if not more.
"This is a huge blow for the industry, and certainly will have a major effect. It is very serious," he says.
"Without a shadow of a doubt it is going to cause financial damage. The ultimate cost will not be known until we know how long the lockdown is in place."
He said the racecourse catering sector spanned big firms like Sodexo, Arc, CGC, and Jockey Club Catering, via medium-sized outfits to one or two-person independent operators.
Mr Spreadbury says that all aspects of catering will be affected, including fine dining, cafeterias, fast-food concessions and bars.
"They are all going to be hit across the board."
'Disappointing'
The big bookmaking firms saw their shares hit on Thursday, and were down again slightly on Friday. At close Ladbrokes-owner GVC was down 1.45%, William Hill was down 0.92%, and Paddy Power Betfair lost just 0.08%.
Venetia Williams is a trainer specialising in National Hunt racing, and was due to have horses running during the abandoned period.
"We missed a large part of the week before through frost and snow, so missing another week is a nuisance and a pain," she says.
"Particularly for us, because the horses are running really well at the moment.
"This to us is the 'high season', so obviously it is disappointing from that point of view."
By ATR and BBC
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